EXTRA: External Threat Assessment of Organised Crime to the European Union

Context

Serious and organised crime is expanding at an unprecedented pace, with criminal groups increasingly operating across physical and online markets, diversifying activities, and strengthening transnational links. These interconnected and increasingly poly-criminal dynamics have intensified global illicit flows and deepened the presence and influence of foreign criminal networks in Europe, undermining public safety, economic stability and governance. Addressing these externally driven threats requires strategic analysis that extends beyond Europe to the regions where many risks originate. Europol’s EU Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (EU-SOCTA) provides a critical foundation for understanding organised crime affecting the EU, drawing primarily on information supplied by Member States. However, when it comes to non-EU-based organised crime groups, significant analytical gaps remain. Existing assessments of illicit economies and criminal actors outside the EU are often fragmented, ad hoc or overly descriptive, and frequently fail to link state-led law enforcement perspectives with insights from civil society and affected communities. EXTRA is designed to address this gap as a complementary analytical resource to the EU-SOCTA. 

By developing a robust, structured and comprehensive evidence base on organised crime dynamics in priority regions outside the EU, EXTRA will enhance understanding of current and emerging vulnerabilities that shape the EU’s exposure to organised crime. This strengthened analytical foundation will equip European policymakers, law enforcement authorities and other relevant stakeholders with actionable insights to support more proactive, informed and effective responses to the evolving organised crime threat landscape.

Overall objective

This project aims to address the global knowledge and analysis gap to enable a better understanding of and response to countering transnational organised crime threats.

Specific objectives

• To strengthen operational and strategic analytical capacities to enable more effective responses to transnational organised crime.
• To improve cooperation between EU Member States and partner countries through joint analytical approaches.
• To increase access to research-based policy and operational recommendations to address transnational organised crime.

Concrete activities

• Capacity-building for partner-country authorities to strengthen crime analysis, threat assessment, and identification of high-risk criminal networks and high-value targets.
• Joint analytical outreach with EU and third-country stakeholders to enhance data sharing, target prioritisation, and coordinated operational planning.
• Annual flagship analytical report aligned with Europol’s EU-SOCTA, supported by thematic and regional working groups and ancillary analytical products (early warning reports, risk bulletins, trend analyses).
• Evidence-based policy and operational recommendations through targeted briefings and tailored knowledge-sharing products.
• Public-facing dissemination activities, including webinars, workshops, and digital outreach.

Expected results

• Capacities for operational and strategic analysis are improved for relevant national and international stakeholders to respond to transnational organised criminality and improve resilience to it at various levels through the creation of standard methodologies.
• EU Member States are supported in the external dimension of EMPACT operational actions, concerning joint strategic and operational analysis to be conducted in partnership with third countries.
• Partner countries improve their ability to cooperate with EU Member States in the use of criminal analysis for recognising and prioritising High Value Targets and the organisation of High Impact Operations.
• Understanding of global organised crime trends is improved through the production of an annual publication regarding organised crime outside the EU (Global Organised Crime Threat Assessment), aligned with Europol’s EU-SOCTA.
• Political and civil society leaders in the EU, international organisations and partner countries have increased awareness and access to research-based policy recommendations to address organised crime, illicit trafficking and the organised crime-terrorism nexus.
• General public and civil society are better informed about developments in transnational organised crime.

Expected achievements

• The flagship annual analytical report, Annual Global Organised Crime Assessment (GLOCA) produced and disseminated, providing:
  • A comprehensive global threat overview identifying the most pervasive organised crime risks affecting the security and stability of the EU and its Member States.
  • Analysis of key criminal actors, networks and enablers, including their roles across major illicit markets and evolving operational tactics.
  • Identification of structural and systemic vulnerabilities in Europe and priority regions that facilitate criminal infiltration of legitimate systems.
  • In-depth thematic analyses on priority crime markets, actors, sectors or regions, with clear relevance for EU security and policy priorities.
• Operational and policy-relevant analytical products delivered, derived from the annual assessment, including closed-door briefings, early-warning notes, risk bulletins and ad hoc analytical products, providing timely intelligence to inform EU policymaking, strategic planning and law enforcement decision-making.