eEARTH: Resource Dynamics, Climate and Environmental Factors Destabilising Peace and Security

The project has a global reach, with a particular focus on Afghanistan, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen

Context

Global security threats are increasingly interconnected, transregional and destabilising, with natural resources and critical infrastructure sitting at the centre of modern conflict. In Yemen, for instance, key civilian infrastructure has become a recurring target of airstrikes, exposing supply-chain risks and transboundary trade dependencies while increasing the risk of famine and wider humanitarian crisis. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier: extreme weather destroys harvests, depletes reservoirs, fuels instability, disrupts humanitarian aid and climate adaptation efforts, and creates opportunities for armed groups to exploit scarcity and grievances. In the Horn of Africa, severe weather has intensified civil strife; South Sudan faces historic flooding alongside renewed conflict and shrinking humanitarian support; and in Somalia, drought has enabled insurgents to control scarce water points and punish dissenting communities. In Afghanistan, recurring droughts and floods are depleting resources, while water infrastructure management risks marginalising local minorities and heightening regional tensions by reducing downstream flows.

Global early warning systems are struggling to keep pace. Traditional monitoring remains fragmented, with climate, economic and political risks often analysed separately rather than as mutually reinforcing crises. This weakens decision-makers’ ability to anticipate how environmental stress, resource competition and political dynamics may escalate into violence. The proposed action responds to this gap by expanding Crisis Group’s Early Action and Risk Tracking Hub, eEARTH, from its Horn of Africa pilot into a broader risk monitoring platform covering Afghanistan, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen. It will combine geospatial analysis, data analytics and field-based conflict expertise to identify risks that would not be visible through existing methods, while providing EU and other stakeholders with evidence-based foresight, written analysis and tailored briefings to support preventive action, resilience and peace in fragile settings.

Overall objective

This project aims to strengthen stakeholders’ ability to anticipate and address conflicts through access to eEARTH data and qualitative analysis of how critical resources and infrastructure can drive conflict or create opportunities for cooperation. In the longer term, this improves stakeholders’ ability to support resilience and sustain peace, by addressing the climate and environmental risks that contribute to violence and instability.

Specific objectives

• To increase EU and other stakeholders’ access to evidence-based analysis and foresight on climate- and environment-related risks to peace and security.
• To support relevant actors’, including the EU’s decision-making, foresight and anticipatory action through eEARTH dashboards, written analysis and tailored engagement.

Concrete activities

• Production of four eEARTH country dashboards covering Afghanistan, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen.
• Production and dissemination of conflict analysis and policy prescriptions integrating qualitative field research and quantitative data.
• Engagement with EU officials, including virtual or in-person briefings, technical assistance to EU Delegations on demand, Brussels-based engagements with FPI, EEAS, DG INTPA, DG CLIMA, ECHO and other relevant services. 

Expected results

• Stakeholders within and beyond the EU have greater access to evidence-based foresight and early warning information, drawing on data analytics and qualitative analysis, focusing on climate- and environment-related risks to peace and security.
• Improved capacity of EU and other stakeholders to understand, anticipate and respond to climate- and environment-related conflict risks.
• Stronger integration of climate and environmental risk analysis into EU policy development, programming and anticipatory action.
• Accessible, timely and policy-relevant early warning information for EU institutions, EU Delegations, governments, security actors, aid organisations and other users.
• Greater policy uptake of eEARTH insights.

Expected achievements

• Expanded eEARTH platform covering environmental and climate-related conflict risk factors in four action locations and relevant transboundary regions.
• Three publications linking environmental and climate data with qualitative field analysis, covering conflict risks and developments in the action locations and transboundary regions.
• eEARTH reaches 10,000 active users by the end of 2026.