EXTRA: External Threat Assessment of Organised Crime to the European Union

*This is an indicative list of countries covered. Project activities are global in scope, with priority regions identified and refined, based on relevance to challenges affecting the security and stability of the EU, and will actively work with EU Member States.

Context

Serious and organised crime is expanding at an unprecedented pace, with criminal groups increasingly operating across physical and online markets, diversifying activities, and strengthening transnational links. 

These interconnected and increasingly poly-criminal dynamics have intensified global illicit flows, and their links to funding of terrorism. Addressing internal / external security nexus requires strategic analysis that extends beyond Europe to the regions where many risks originate. EXTRA is designed to this goal. 

By developing a robust, structured and comprehensive evidence base on organised crime dynamics in priority regions outside the EU, EXTRA will complement and support the existing EU tools (namely Europol’s SOCTA and other Agencies’ tools) to understand current and emerging vulnerabilities for EU and partner countries. 

This strengthened analytical foundation will support policymakers, law enforcement authorities and other relevant stakeholders with actionable insights to support more proactive, informed and effective responses to the evolving organised crime threat landscape. 

Overall objective

This project aims to address the global knowledge and analysis gap to enable a better understanding of and response to countering transnational organised crime threats and the links with terrorism.

Specific objectives

• To strengthen operational and strategic analytical capacities to enable more effective responses to transnational organised crime.
• To improve cooperation between EU and partner countries through joint analytical approaches.
• To increase access to research-based policy and operational recommendations to address transnational organised crime.

Concrete activities

• Analytical reports complementary to Europol’s EU-SOCTA, supported by thematic and regional working groups and ancillary analytical products (early warning reports, risk bulletins, trend analyses).
• Deep-dive studies on priority research areas.
• Capacity-building for partner-country authorities to strengthen crime analysis, threat assessment, and identification of high-risk criminal networks and high-value targets.
• Joint analytical outreach with EU and third-country stakeholders to enhance data sharing, target prioritisation, and coordinated operational planning.
• Evidence-based policy and operational recommendations through targeted briefings and tailored knowledge-sharing products.
• Public-facing dissemination activities, including webinars, workshops, and digital outreach.

Expected results

• Understanding of transnational organised crime trends is improved through the production of reports regarding organised crime outside the EU, complementary to Europol’s EU-SOCTA and to other Agencies’ tools.
• Capacities for operational and strategic analysis are improved for relevant national and international stakeholders to respond to transnational organised criminality and improve resilience to it at various levels through the creation of standard methodologies.
• The external dimension of EMPACT operational actions is supported, by joint strategic and operational analysis to be conducted in partnership with third countries.
• Partner countries improve their ability to cooperate with EU in the use of criminal analysis for recognising and prioritising High Value Targets and the organisation of High Impact Operations.
• Public sector and and civil society stakeholders in the EU, international organisations and partner countries have increased awareness and access to research-based policy recommendations to address organised crime, illicit trafficking and the organised crime-terrorism nexus.
• General public and civil society are better informed about developments in transnational organised crime.

Expected achievements

• Analytical reports, produced and disseminated, providing:
  • Overviews of the most pervasive external crime threats affecting the security and stability of the EU, as well as emerging risks.
  • Analysis of key external criminal actors, networks and enablers, including their roles across major illicit markets and evolving operational tactics.
  • Identification of structural and systemic vulnerabilities in and beyond Europe and priority regions that facilitate criminal infiltration of legitimate systems.
  • In-depth thematic analyses on priority crime markets, actors, sectors or regions, with clear relevance for EU security and policy priorities.
• Operational and policy-relevant analytical products delivered, derived from the assessments, including closed-door briefings, early-warning notes, risk bulletins and ad hoc analytical and multimedia products, providing timely intelligence to inform EU and partner countries policymaking, strategic planning and law enforcement decision-making.